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Blackjack Tournament Training - Part 5

What I want to cover here is how I play hands 21-25 in a 25-hand match. This would be the equivalent to hands 46-50 of a 50-hand match, so adjust your thinking accordingly if that's the type of tournament you play in. As you may know, we co-host a monthly Blackjack Tournament with Global Player Casino and the challenger was able to defeat me, which ended my four-in-a-row winning streak, so the prize for beating me in January will be $500. I didn't compete in any tournaments at my local brick-and-mortar casino, but I have entered a tournament in Tunica, MS where the top prize is $50,000 and I'm really looking forward to that one. It's scheduled to be held January 18-20, 2002, so I'll report on it in February 2002.

The End Game

At this point of the match, I have a goal of being within half a maximum bet of the "perceived leader" and, in the tournament I play in at a local brick-and-mortar casino, there is a tabulation of everyone's chips at hand #20. If I'm still not at my goal when it's time to place my bet for hand #21, I put on my "make or break" attitude and play accordingly. Let me show you what I do on a hand-by-hand basis and I'll toss in a few examples of bets to make, playing style, etc. Remember that the tournament I use as an example here consists of 25 hands of play and in the early 'qualifying' matches, two from each table of seven move to the next round. We all have $2500 in play-money, the minimum bet is $25 and the maximum bet is $500.

Hand #21: Before I do anything, I check to see what my position is in the overall match. If I'm # 2 and everyone else is far behind me, I'm in pretty good shape and really just need stay close to #1, rather than worrying about staving off the others. However, if (as is typical) there are several players with totals near mine and I'm not within one-half of a max bet ($250) of the leader, I'll make a bet on this hand that's big enough to put me there. If I'm betting after the leader, I'll take his or her bet into consideration when calculating mine. If I'm betting before the leader, I'll figure s/he will bet the minimum and hope that's correct. As an example, let's say the leader has $2150 and I have $1800, so I'm $350 behind. My goal is to come out of this hand less than $250 behind, which means I need to bet at least $125 if #1 bets $25. If #1 is betting after me, I just have to pick a number and hope it's close. If #1 is smart, s/he will basically match my bet so that we'll move in "lock-step" with one another.

Helpful Hint: Concentrate on #1 (assuming it's not you), rather than trying to play against each contender individually. Get close to, or ahead of # 1 and you'll probably be ahead of all the rest as well.

Hand # 22: What I'll do on this hand is largely dependent upon what happened on the last one, so if I won and #1 lost, our totals should be pretty close, but if I lost and # 1 won, I'll be even further behind. If we both lost, I'm probably still behind and some other player may have moved ahead of me or is now breathing down my neck. Sounds to me like a good time to make a big bet and it'll probably be double the bet I made for hand # 21. (I apologize for all this "maybe", "probably" stuff, but there are no hard, fast rules for this, so please bear with me.) However, if I was able to gain on #1 and no other player is a serious threat, I'll feel awfully good and will bet about average with everyone else, because that should put me in the # 2 spot and in the tournament I use as examples here, two move forward. Naturally, I'd feel better about being #1, but at this stage, # 2 isn't bad. Let's move on to the next hand.

Hand #23: My position is what I focus on in this hand. If I'm still behind, it's either by only a small amount, or I'm way behind and probably have to bet the max. Before doing that, I take a quick survey of the other players' chips because if I'm well ahead of them, I'll bet only what I need to get ahead of # 1.

Hand #24: Almost everyone at your table will want to be # 1 on the final hand, so you'll see quite a few max bets on this next-to-last hand. Just how much I'll bet depends upon a lot of things, but the primary factor is my position for betting. We have to assume at this point that I'm within a half-bet of #1, which was my goal. If I'm not, I'll bet the max. But, if I'm within a half bet, just what to bet is dictated largely by what my betting position will be on hand #25. If I'll be betting after # 1 on hand #25, I'll make a minimum or near-minimum bet on hand # 24 (it depends upon how close #3 is to me). The reason for that is I'll have a big advantage over # 1 on the last hand and I don't want to be in a position of losing a max. bet on hand # 24, which could place me way behind. In addition, a small bet is a nice "counter" bet to all the big bets others will make and that'll be nice if the dealer gets a 'natural' and beats the table.

But, if I'll be betting before # 1 on hand # 25, I'll make a max. bet now and try to go into hand # 25 as the leader. The worst situation I could find myself in would be that I'll bet before # 1 on this hand and before him or her on hand # 25 as well. In that case, I'll go with a low bet on this hand, in preparation for making a max. bet on hand # 25.

Helpful Hint: Stanford Wong's book, "Casino Tournament Strategy" has some very good advice on how to play the next-to-last hand and I consider it my "bible" for how to play the final hand of a match.

Hand #25: How I'll bet and play the last hand contains so many variables that it would take a book to list them all. In fact, there is a book available and it's the aforementioned "Casino Tournament Strategy". In it, you'll find many, many last-hand strategies for most types of situations, from one winner per table up to three winners per table.

If I had 10 or 15 minutes to calculate my bet for the last hand, I'm sure I'd make the perfect bet every time. Unfortunately, most tournaments have a time restriction on placing your bet (it's 30 seconds in the tournament I play locally), so mine is usually an "educated" guess, but I'm working on that. While the qualifying rounds of my local match allow for two players from each table to move forward, I always treat the last hand as though I'm at the "final" table and being #1 will make me the Grand Prize winner. By doing that, if I slip into 2nd place, I'm still okay. Here is a list of things I consider:

Can I size my bet so that I'll end with the highest amount of chips if we all lose against a dealer's natural?
Can I size my bet so I'll be ahead of # 1, even if we both win the hand?
Can I size my bet so I'll be ahead of # 1, even if we both lose the hand?
Can I size my bet so that # 3 can't catch up?
Can I size my bet to cover a 'natural' (3 to 2 payoff) by # 1?
Can I size my bet to cover a double by #1 and/or # 3?
Can I size my bet to cover a win by #3 and a push by me?

The answer to many of these will be a resounding "no", but I (quickly) run through all the possibilities, anyway. I pay particular attention to covering my opponent's natural or double on this hand, regardless of whether I'm # 1 or #2 in the chip standings or not. I also try to avoid the situation where I have to win and my opponent has to lose for me to be # 1, but a lot of that work is done before hand # 25. That's why it's important to fight for the #1 position going into the last hand.

The way I play my hand in this round is, again, determined by a lot of factors, but here are some examples of my thinking:

1. I'm quicker to double than to split pairs, because splitting often results in a "push" (win one, lose one) and a push may be as bad as a loss.
2. Before I deviate from Basic Strategy, I see what hand my primary competitor has. If it looks like s/he will win with that hand, I'll be more aggressive than if s/he has, say, a 16 against the dealer's 10.
3. If the dealer is "strong" (8,9 or 10 showing), I quickly calculate where my opponent and I will stand if we both lose. If I can win the match if we both lose, then there's very little risk in me busting, assuming my opponent has a relatively weak hand. But, I want to avoid losing while my opponent wins, so it's not likely that I'll hit an 18 against the dealer's 10. At other times, I may have no choice and will do so, or even double it!

Next time I'll report on what I learned while competing in a tournament with a $50,000 top prize. I'm sure that experience will be interesting and a lot of fun.

See you then.

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