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The School Simulations

In my series of lessons known as "The GameMaster's Blackjack School", most of the material presented is about how to win at a Blackjack game that uses six decks, the dealer stands on A-6, you may double on any first two cards, double after splitting pairs and the surrender option is not available. I chose a game like that because it's somewhat common, at least in the U.S. and the Basic Strategy for it can be easily modified if the rules for the game where you play are different. For example, if the game you play does not allow double after split, it's easy to modify the Basic Strategy for splitting pairs, because you already know the plays to make for that game and it's just a matter of "forgetting" some plays. If the dealer hits A,6 there are only two important changes needed in the Basic Strategy: Double A,8 versus a 6 (instead of standing) and double 11 versus an Ace (instead of just hitting).

Well, I didn't intend to turn this into a lesson on Basic Strategy, but what I want to accomplish is to give you a good working knowledge of just what can be earned by playing this game as I suggest and how different playing conditions, different rules of the game and so on can affect your win rate. If you haven't studied my course, let me tell you that I first show you how to play the game using the proper Basic Strategy, then I add to that how to vary your bet size by counting the cards and then I tell you to leave the table when the count gives the casino a bigger than normal edge over you and in the part called "The Advanced Course", I show you how to use the count to also vary the way you play your hand.

All of these elements will have an impact on how much of an advantage you can get over the casino. To demonstrate this, I ran a series of simulations on a fantastic software program that I own, called "Statistical Blackjack Analyzer". (A demo version can be downloaded for free at www.sba.com/). Each simulation involved the playing of 100 million hands and was typically accomplished in 4 minutes or less on a 733 MHz Pentium computer. Such a large sample results in statistics in which we can have a high degree of confidence of their accuracy. The program allowed me to change various parameters of the game, such as the bet spread, the penetration, whether or not I left the game when the count dropped and so forth. I ran a different sim each time I changed something like that and have arranged them so that you can easily see what impact the change had.

I began, appropriately enough, at the beginning and added enhancements to the player's skills much in the same way I cover them in the Blackjack School lessons. The key indicator for how we're doing is what Statistical Blackjack Analyzer (SBA) calls "initial bet advantage". This is a percentage figure that indicates our advantage based upon the initial bets made. What that means is that the extra bets we put up for doubling, splitting pairs and so forth aren't counted as part of the total bets, even though we do actually make them. But comparing different game conditions requires us to compare apples with apples, so to speak and, to me, this is the best way. However, SBA gives you the option of using either initial bet advantage or total bet advantage, so it's really up to you. Okay, enough background information, let's get to the sims.

Keep in mind that I never changed the casino's rules: 6 decks, dealer stands on soft 17, double on any first two cards, double after splitting pairs is permitted, but surrender isn't available. However, I did change various playing conditions, techniques, strategies and bet schedules, as you'll see.

The School Game Sims

Play Basic Strategy only, same bet made on each hand, no counting. 5 decks of 6 are dealt. Player Edge = -0.43%.
Same as above, but bet 1-12 units per hand, according to the count. 5 decks of 6 are dealt. Player Edge = +0.66%.
Same as #2, but also vary the play of the hand according to the count, using the Basic Strategy Variations. 5 decks of 6 are dealt. Player's Edge = 0.96%.
Same as #3, but leave when the True Count goes below -1. 5 decks of 6 are dealt. Player Edge = +1.50%.
Same as #4, but don't leave until the True Count goes below -3. 5 decks of 6 are dealt. Player Edge = +1.26%.
Same as #4, but the penetration is only 4.5 decks of 6 (75%). Player Edge = +1.15%.
Same as #6, but the penetration is 3.9 decks of 6 (65%) and player doesn't leave until the True Count goes below -3. Player Edge = 0.49%.

Comments

First of all, you need to remember that the program used to create these simulations plays Blackjack perfectly and it doesn't make any mistakes (I presume) in estimating the True Count, so the player advantages listed above are probably about 10% higher than we mere mortals can expect to attain.

You may have noticed that the sims start with a low (negative) return, then it climbs up to a peak and then goes back down again. The peak comes at a game with good penetration and a willingness of the player to move when the count drops. But even with a "fudge factor" of 10%, a 1.35% player edge for sim #4 is nothing to sneeze at. When you think about it, a 1.35% edge is bigger that the casino enjoys, as an average, on the Player and Banker bet at Baccarat! And the last I heard, they were making a profit at that game, so the edge may appear small, but it's mighty.

But look how the edge drops off as the penetration worsens and as the player becomes lazy and doesn't leave bad counts. While 0.49% is still an edge, the player in this game (#7) could go on for hundreds of hours and not show a profit. Sure, breaking even isn't all that bad, but if you want a fair return for your time and risk, you MUST seek out good games and play them properly.

These simulations (the entire series consists of 1.4 Billion hands of play) generated a huge amount of data which would have taken up 10 pages here, had I posted it all. But if you have some questions or would like more data on one of the sims listed, just e-mail me at aceten1@mindspring.com

I'll see you here next time.

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