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|Changes which help the player||Change in edge|
|Double after split||+.14%|
|Early surrender vs. all||+.70%|
|Early surrender vs. 10 only||+.30%|
|Changes which hurt the player||Change in edge|
|Dealer hits A-6||-.20%|
|Double only on 11||-.46%|
|Double only 10, 11||-.09%|
|Double only 9, 10, 11||-.09%|
|No resplitting pairs||-.04%|
|No Insurance |
(if you are counting cards)
To determine the casino's edge over you at the beginning of a shoe, just add or subtract the rules variations from the 'base' game listed above. For example, if you play a double deck game which has the same rules as the base game, the casino advantage is computed as follows
How far the dealer goes into the deck(s) before shuffling can have a major effect on your winnings. The reason is that with a shallow penetration, the 'high' counts which enable you to bet more occur less often in decks where the shuffle comes early. The table below shows how often counts will occur on a percentage basis at varying degrees of penetration.
|50%||65%||75%|| 85% |
Let's examine what I'm trying to say here. If you play at a game with only 50% penetration, out of every 100 hands, only 29 will have, on average, a true count of 1 or better. Since it requires a true count of 1 to get even with the house, only 14 will be hands on which you have an advantage. Now look at the stats for a game with 85% penetration. Here, about 37.5% of the hands will be at breakeven or better and almost a quarter will be hands on which you have an advantage.
YOU ARE WASTING YOUR TIME AND MONEY IF YOU PLAY AT A GAME WITH LESS THAN 65% PENETRATION.
Even if a game doesn't offer the best rules, it can still be beaten if good penetration is available. Remember that you should leave a game when the count drops below a true of minus 1 so that you spend most of your playing time making bets in what I call the 'profit zone.'
Calculate the player starting advantage for the following:
I'll post the correct answers to this quiz next week.
See you then.
Single deck, double only on 10 and 11 and the dealer hits A-6. Resplits (except Aces) are permitted and insurance is available. Answer: .33%
Six decks, dealer stands on A-6, double any first two cards, double after split is allowed, resplitting permitted, including Aces and insurance is available. Answer: .33%
Two decks, double on any first two cards, no resplitting of pairs, no double after split allowed, late surrender and insurance is available. Answer: .30%
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