The Blackjack Page

Blackjack Tournaments with Elimination Hands - Part 7

The rules of the game that's dealt at Ultimate Bet.com where I play virtually all of my Blackjack tournaments allow for late surrender, which means you may surrender your hand after the dealer "peeks" to see if she, he (it?) has a 'blackjack' whenever the up card is a 10 or Ace. In return for giving up half your bet, you can end the hand then and there. Of course, you will lose 100% of your bet should the dealer have a 'blackjack', so late surrender does not have a big impact on the casino's edge over you. For example, in a 6-deck game where the dealer hits soft 17, you may double on any two first cards, including after splitting pairs - the rules in effect at Ultimate bet.com - the casino's edge is 0.63% without late surrender and 0.54% with it; not much of a difference. However, were that early surrender (where you may surrender before the dealer checks the hole card), the casino's edge would actually be negative; that is, a player advantage "off the top", with most of that coming from the ability to surrender versus an Ace. But that's not going to happen, so let's just deal with reality here and see how late surrender can help us win Blackjack tournaments.

The late surrender option, when used properly, can help you to reduce your variance, which is a fancy way of saying it can smooth out some of the bankroll swings inherent in the game of Blackjack. For example, if you've bet T5000 (the "T" stands for tournament chips), end up with a hand of 16 against a dealer's up card of 10 and the dealer does not have a 'blackjack', you're still an underdog in the hand, regardless of whether you stand or hit. By standing, your expectation is to lose 54.1% (as measured by the amount of your bet) and by hitting, you can expect to lose 53.5%; basically the same result - a loss of T5000. Yes, you might win the hand, in which case you will win T5000 or you might push, which is neither a gain nor a loss. So, lose T5000 (the most likely result), win T5000 or push. There's a T10,000 difference in the win/lose results and that "swing" is variance. Of course, we never have a problem with swings to the upside - it's the swings to the downside that hurt.

Surrender is a guaranteed outcome; somewhat painful of course, but at least it's a known quantity and there will be times in a tournament when choosing the option will serve you well. To me, there are three ways to use surrender:1) cut your losses, 2) bluff your opponents and 3) trap your opponents.

1. Cut Your Losses

This is pretty obvious; when you have a hand where playing it out will cause you to lose more than 50% of your bet in the long run, you should surrender. Notice I said "in the long run." I recognize that it might be crucial for you to win this hand, so hitting or standing may be your only option, but in a general sense surrendering hands that have an expected loss of over 50% is better most of the time. For the game at Ultimate Bet.com , here's the surrender Basic Strategy that I use: Surrender player hand of 17 versus dealer's Ace
Surrender player hand of 16 (9,7 or 10,6) versus dealer's 9, 10 and Ace
Surrender player hand of 8,8 versus dealer's Ace
Surrender player hand of 15 versus dealer's 10 or Ace

Any other surrender play may be right for the particular set of circumstances of that hand, but it's a mistake from a strictly mathematical point of view. In these tournaments, I see all kinds of dumb plays like surrendering a 12 versus a 10, where the player "knows" s/he is going to catch a 10 and bust. Well, nobody has a crystal ball; such plays are costing you chips you'll likely need or wish you had later. Unless there's a valid "strategic" gain to be made by surrendering, you should follow the proper Basic Strategy.

2. Bluff Your Opponents

If you're using your secret bet, the other players will not know if you've chosen to stand with your hand or surrender it, because all they'll see as you play is that you haven't taken any additional cards. Your actual action won't be revealed until the dealer's hand is played and that can be to your advantage. For example, let's say you're LB-2 (the second-lowest bankroll) with T24,000 chips on the first elimination hand and must bet first. In this situation, I'd most likely use my secret bet because it's just too easy for your opponents to correlate their bets with yours. Let's also say that LB-1, the short stack at the table, has T23,000 in chips. It's not unreasonable to assume that LB-1 will bet most, if not all, of his or her chips, which basically means s/he must win the hand in order to advance. If you were to bet T1000, which is your lead over LB-1 and lose the hand, you'd be left with T24,000, which ties a push by LB-1 and you'd have to play a runoff match against him, because you both ended with the same amount of chips. But if you surrender the hand, LB-1 will not know you did that - he'll only see that you did not take a hit card - so the pressure is still on him to win the hand, which might cause him to hit or double a hand like 17, etc. Now understand, LB-1 might receive a great hand and you might still be eliminated; that's up to the Blackjack gods. But by surrendering in secret, you've put the pressure on your opponent, which might cause him or her to make a mistake without taking a big risk yourself. Remember, you can't lose what you don't bet.

3. The Surrender Trap

If you have to bet before your opponent, have a lead of some sort and prefer to not use your secret bet, you might be able to "trap" him. This will work most often against inexperienced players, but again, it creates an opportunity for any of your opponents to make a mistake. Using the example above, where you have T24,000 chips and the low stack has T23,000, you can make a bet of T1500, which is twice your lead minus a minimum bet and if your opponent bets, say, T500 in order to end in a tie with you if you both lose the hand (s/he will have T22,500 as will you), you can surrender your hand and end with T22,750, thus forcing your opponent to play his or her hand in an attempt to pass you. This is a very simplistic look at the surrender trap; it can work well in the heat of battle, so to speak, but as I mentioned earlier it may not work against very experienced players. The key here is to bet twice your lead over the "trapee" minus one minimum bet (one chip, basically) and look to surrender if necessary. Again, it's pretty much in the hands of the Blackjack gods as to whether or not this will work on any particular hand in a tournament, but it's definitely a weapon you want to carry into battle.

These are not the only ways to use the surrender option, but they are the main ways. Some players think using the option at anytime is dumb, but they're wrong. Sure, as my friend Ken Smith says, "There's always a better bet", but the timely use of surrender can sometimes win a match for you, so don't ignore it as an option.

I'll see you here next time.

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